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77 quotes by Nate Silver

Nathaniel Read "Nate" Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician and writer who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics) and elections (see psephology). He is currently the editor-in-chief of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight blog and a Special Correspondent for ABC News. Silver first gained public recognition for developing PECOTA, a system for forecasting the performance and career development of Major League Baseball players, which he sold...
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Caesar recognized the omens, but he didn't believe they applied to him.

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People don't have a good intuitive sense of how to weigh new information in light of what they already know. They tend to overrate it.

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Basically, books were a luxury item before the printing press.

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We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.

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A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work.... →

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If you have reason to think that yesterday's forecast went wrong, there is no glory in sticking to it.

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Any one game in baseball doesn't tell you that much, just as any one poll doesn't tell you that much.

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If you're keeping yourself in the bubble and only looking at your own data or only watching the TV that fits your agenda then it gets boring.

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I've just always been a bit of a dork.

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On average, people should be more skeptical when they see numbers. They should be more willing to play around with the data themselves.

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There's always the risk that there are unknown unknowns.

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Distinguishing the signal from the noise requires both scientific knowledge and self-knowledge.

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Well the way we perceive accuracy and what accuracy is statistically are really two different things.

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